๐ Fund Consistency
Rolling Returns Calculator
See How Consistently Your Investment Performs Across All Time Windows
Rolling returns show CAGR calculated over every possible window within a dataset โ revealing if returns are consistent or just lucky timing. The most powerful tool to evaluate mutual fund managers and asset class reliability.
Rolling CAGRNifty 50 HistoryMin / Max / Avg
% Positive PeriodsFund ConsistencyBeat Inflation
DATASET:
Rolling Returns Analysis
๐ Annual Returns Data
YearAnnual Return (%)Index Value
๐ Enter annual returns for each year. The calculator computes every N-year rolling CAGR window automatically.
Rolling Returns Summary
๐
Average Rolling CAGR
โ
โ
Best Period
โ
โ
Worst Period
โ
โ
Median CAGR
โ
middle value
Std Deviation
โ
volatility of returns
Consistency Score
Total Windows
โ
โ
Avg CAGR
โ
rolling mean
% Positive
โ
CAGR > 0%
Beat Benchmark
โ
โ
Rolling CAGR Over Every Window
Rolling CAGR
Average
Benchmark
Distribution of Rolling CAGR Values (Histogram)
๐ All Rolling Windows โ Detailed
What are Rolling Returns?
Rolling returns measure the CAGR of an investment over every possible N-year window within a historical dataset. Instead of looking at a single point-to-point return (which can be cherry-picked to look good or bad), rolling returns show you the distribution of outcomes across all time windows โ revealing the true consistency and reliability of an asset's performance.
For example, Nifty 50's 5-year rolling return analysis from 2000โ2024 would compute CAGR for the window 2000โ2005, then 2001โ2006, then 2002โ2007, and so on โ giving 20 data points. The percentage of those windows that delivered positive returns, or beat 12%, tells you how likely you are to achieve that outcome regardless of when you invested.
Rolling CAGR (Year i to Year i+N) = (Value[i+N] / Value[i])^(1/N) โ 1
Total Windows = Total Years โ Rolling Period
% Positive Windows = (Windows with CAGR > 0) / Total Windows ร 100
Consistency Score = % Windows beating target benchmark
Total Windows = Total Years โ Rolling Period
% Positive Windows = (Windows with CAGR > 0) / Total Windows ร 100
Consistency Score = % Windows beating target benchmark
Why Rolling Returns Are Better Than Point-to-Point Returns
| Aspect | Point-to-Point Return | Rolling Return |
|---|---|---|
| Data points | 1 (cherry-pickable) | Many (all windows) |
| Start date bias | Highly dependent on entry date | Removes entry date bias |
| Consistency insight | None โ just a snapshot | Full distribution of outcomes |
| Fund comparison | Limited โ one number per fund | Compares consistency, not just avg |
| Used by | Retail investors, ads | Sebi, research analysts, advisors |
Nifty 50 Historical Rolling Return Facts
| Rolling Window | Avg CAGR | Min CAGR | Max CAGR | % Positive Periods |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year | 14.2% | โ52% | +76% | ~71% |
| 3 Years | 13.8% | โ8% | +57% | ~83% |
| 5 Years | 13.1% | โ2% | +47% | ~89% |
| 7 Years | 13.5% | +1% | +41% | ~100% |
| 10 Years | 13.9% | +4% | +32% | 100% |
Frequently Asked Questions
How is rolling return different from trailing return?โผ
Trailing return is a specific point-to-point return: CAGR from exactly N years ago to today. It gives just one number. Rolling return computes N-year CAGR for every possible start date in the dataset โ giving you a distribution of outcomes. If a fund's 5-year trailing return is 18%, that might look great, but if 5-year rolling returns across all windows average only 10% with many negative periods, the 18% was just lucky timing. Rolling returns reveal this.
Which rolling window should I use to evaluate a fund?โผ
The choice depends on your investment horizon. For SIP investors with a 5-year+ horizon, 3-year and 5-year rolling returns are most relevant. For long-term equity allocation (10+ years), 7-year and 10-year rolling windows matter most. A fund that consistently delivers positive 5-year rolling returns with low standard deviation is preferable to one with a higher average but wide variance โ the latter means your outcome heavily depends on entry timing.
What does a high standard deviation in rolling returns mean?โผ
High standard deviation means returns are inconsistent โ timing matters a lot. A fund with 14% avg 3-year rolling return but 12% std dev could give you anywhere from 2% to 26% CAGR depending on when you entered. A fund with 12% avg and only 4% std dev would give you 8%โ16% regardless of timing. For goal-based investing, low std deviation (consistency) is often more important than a slightly higher average with high variance.
Why has the Nifty 50 never given negative 10-year rolling returns?โผ
In every 10-year window since the Nifty's inception, it has always delivered positive returns โ the worst 10-year CAGR has been around +4%. This is because India's nominal GDP growth (7โ10% annually) provides a structural floor for large-cap returns over long periods. Even investors who bought at the 2008 peak saw positive CAGR by 2018. This is the statistical basis for the "Nifty 50 SIP for 10+ years never loses money" claim โ though past performance doesn't guarantee future results.
How do I compare two funds using rolling returns?โผ
Enter the annual return series for both funds and compare: (1) Average rolling CAGR โ higher is better. (2) % of windows beating benchmark โ consistency. (3) Standard deviation โ lower means more predictable. (4) Worst period โ downside risk. A truly superior fund has higher average, lower std deviation, fewer negative periods, and a better worst-case than its benchmark. If Fund A has slightly lower average but much lower std deviation, many investors prefer Fund A for goal-based planning.
๐ Fund Consistency
Rolling Returns Calculator
See How Consistently Your Investment Performs Across All Time Windows
Rolling returns show CAGR calculated over every possible window within a dataset โ revealing if returns are consistent or just lucky timing. The most powerful tool to evaluate mutual fund managers and asset class reliability.
Rolling CAGRNifty 50 HistoryMin / Max / Avg
% Positive PeriodsFund ConsistencyBeat Inflation
DATASET:
Rolling Returns Analysis
๐ Annual Returns Data
YearAnnual Return (%)Index Value
๐ Enter annual returns for each year. The calculator computes every N-year rolling CAGR window automatically.
Rolling Returns Summary
๐
Average Rolling CAGR
โ
โ
Best Period
โ
โ
Worst Period
โ
โ
Median CAGR
โ
middle value
Std Deviation
โ
volatility of returns
Consistency Score
Total Windows
โ
โ
Avg CAGR
โ
rolling mean
% Positive
โ
CAGR > 0%
Beat Benchmark
โ
โ
Rolling CAGR Over Every Window
Rolling CAGR
Average
Benchmark
Distribution of Rolling CAGR Values (Histogram)
๐ All Rolling Windows โ Detailed
What are Rolling Returns?
Rolling returns measure the CAGR of an investment over every possible N-year window within a historical dataset. Instead of looking at a single point-to-point return (which can be cherry-picked to look good or bad), rolling returns show you the distribution of outcomes across all time windows โ revealing the true consistency and reliability of an asset's performance.
For example, Nifty 50's 5-year rolling return analysis from 2000โ2024 would compute CAGR for the window 2000โ2005, then 2001โ2006, then 2002โ2007, and so on โ giving 20 data points. The percentage of those windows that delivered positive returns, or beat 12%, tells you how likely you are to achieve that outcome regardless of when you invested.
Rolling CAGR (Year i to Year i+N) = (Value[i+N] / Value[i])^(1/N) โ 1
Total Windows = Total Years โ Rolling Period
% Positive Windows = (Windows with CAGR > 0) / Total Windows ร 100
Consistency Score = % Windows beating target benchmark
Total Windows = Total Years โ Rolling Period
% Positive Windows = (Windows with CAGR > 0) / Total Windows ร 100
Consistency Score = % Windows beating target benchmark
Why Rolling Returns Are Better Than Point-to-Point Returns
| Aspect | Point-to-Point Return | Rolling Return |
|---|---|---|
| Data points | 1 (cherry-pickable) | Many (all windows) |
| Start date bias | Highly dependent on entry date | Removes entry date bias |
| Consistency insight | None โ just a snapshot | Full distribution of outcomes |
| Fund comparison | Limited โ one number per fund | Compares consistency, not just avg |
| Used by | Retail investors, ads | Sebi, research analysts, advisors |
Nifty 50 Historical Rolling Return Facts
| Rolling Window | Avg CAGR | Min CAGR | Max CAGR | % Positive Periods |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year | 14.2% | โ52% | +76% | ~71% |
| 3 Years | 13.8% | โ8% | +57% | ~83% |
| 5 Years | 13.1% | โ2% | +47% | ~89% |
| 7 Years | 13.5% | +1% | +41% | ~100% |
| 10 Years | 13.9% | +4% | +32% | 100% |
Frequently Asked Questions
How is rolling return different from trailing return?โผ
Trailing return is a specific point-to-point return: CAGR from exactly N years ago to today. It gives just one number. Rolling return computes N-year CAGR for every possible start date in the dataset โ giving you a distribution of outcomes. If a fund's 5-year trailing return is 18%, that might look great, but if 5-year rolling returns across all windows average only 10% with many negative periods, the 18% was just lucky timing. Rolling returns reveal this.
Which rolling window should I use to evaluate a fund?โผ
The choice depends on your investment horizon. For SIP investors with a 5-year+ horizon, 3-year and 5-year rolling returns are most relevant. For long-term equity allocation (10+ years), 7-year and 10-year rolling windows matter most. A fund that consistently delivers positive 5-year rolling returns with low standard deviation is preferable to one with a higher average but wide variance โ the latter means your outcome heavily depends on entry timing.
What does a high standard deviation in rolling returns mean?โผ
High standard deviation means returns are inconsistent โ timing matters a lot. A fund with 14% avg 3-year rolling return but 12% std dev could give you anywhere from 2% to 26% CAGR depending on when you entered. A fund with 12% avg and only 4% std dev would give you 8%โ16% regardless of timing. For goal-based investing, low std deviation (consistency) is often more important than a slightly higher average with high variance.
Why has the Nifty 50 never given negative 10-year rolling returns?โผ
In every 10-year window since the Nifty's inception, it has always delivered positive returns โ the worst 10-year CAGR has been around +4%. This is because India's nominal GDP growth (7โ10% annually) provides a structural floor for large-cap returns over long periods. Even investors who bought at the 2008 peak saw positive CAGR by 2018. This is the statistical basis for the "Nifty 50 SIP for 10+ years never loses money" claim โ though past performance doesn't guarantee future results.
How do I compare two funds using rolling returns?โผ
Enter the annual return series for both funds and compare: (1) Average rolling CAGR โ higher is better. (2) % of windows beating benchmark โ consistency. (3) Standard deviation โ lower means more predictable. (4) Worst period โ downside risk. A truly superior fund has higher average, lower std deviation, fewer negative periods, and a better worst-case than its benchmark. If Fund A has slightly lower average but much lower std deviation, many investors prefer Fund A for goal-based planning.