Bitcoin Tests $59K: ETFs Shed $692M Ahead of $10.6B Options Expiry

Bitcoin tested $59,400 on Friday as $691 million exited U.S. spot ETFs in a single session, the largest daily outflow since May, according to Yahoo Finance data. The selloff coincides with a $10.6 billion options expiry on Friday that analysts say could amplify volatility as traders unwind positions. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to 18, signaling Extreme Fear across markets.

What Happened

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $691 million on Thursday, the most since May, according to SoSoValue data cited by Yahoo Finance. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the exodus with $182 million in withdrawals, the largest single-fund outflow. The selling pressure pushed Bitcoin below the $60,000 psychological level to a session low of $59,400, extending the weekly decline to approximately 10% and the monthly drop to nearly 23%.

Over $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for the majority, according to Crypto Briefing. The liquidation cascade coincided with Grayscale announcing plans to sell $3 billion in Bitcoin to meet cash obligations, adding further supply-side pressure. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index from Alternative.me dropped to 18, its lowest reading in weeks, reflecting Extreme Fear sentiment.

Why It Matters

The convergence of record ETF outflows, a massive options expiry, and institutional selling creates a perfect storm for Bitcoin price discovery. The $10.6 billion in expiring options represents one of the largest quarterly expiries on record, with the maximum pain point — where option sellers face the greatest loss — pegged at $96,000 by TradingView analysts, far above current levels. This suggests significant gamma exposure that could amplify moves in either direction as dealers hedge positions.

ETF flows have been a dominant driver of Bitcoin's price trajectory since the U.S. spot funds launched in January 2024. Research from FalconX and 21Shares indicates that positive flow shocks persistently lift prices over 3-4 day horizons, while sustained outflows erode support. The current 13-day outflow streak, totaling over $4.4 billion according to CoinShares, represents the longest redemption run since the funds' inception.

Grayscale's planned $3 billion sale adds a known seller to an already fragile market structure. Unlike ETF redemptions which reflect investor sentiment, Grayscale's sale is a forced liquidation to meet operational obligations, potentially creating a price-insensitive supply overhang.

What's Next

Markets will watch Friday's options expiry for clues on near-term direction. If Bitcoin holds above $58,000 — the 200-day moving average support cited by Binance analysts — a relief rally toward $62,000 is possible as gamma hedging unwinds. However, a break below $58,000 could trigger a cascade toward the $55,000-$56,000 zone, where MicroStrategy's average purchase price near USD 75,500 provides a longer-term floor.

ETF flow data for Friday will be critical. A reversal to inflows would signal institutional buyers stepping in at discounted levels, while continued outflows would confirm risk-off positioning. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory remains a macro wildcard — Reuters reports gold ETFs are also seeing outflows on tightening bets, suggesting the pressure is broader than crypto alone.

MicroStrategy, now rebranded as Strategy, holds roughly 846,000 BTC valued at approximately USD 54 billion at current prices. The company's chairman has denied selling and signaled continued accumulation, which could provide a demand anchor if ETF flows stabilize.

For context on the broader market structure, see our coverage of Bitcoin Below $60K: 21-Month Low as ETF Outflows Hit $4.4B, Bitdeer Liquidates Entire Bitcoin Treasury: $205M Sale Funds AI Data Center Pivot, Ford Sues Lemon Law Firm, Ether XRP Dogecoin Lead Crypto Selloff, MicroStrategy Stock Plunges 9%: Bitcoin Strategy Backfires, Bitcoin Hits 21-Month Low: $1.3B ETF Outflows Trigger Risk-Off Selloff, and Bitcoin Below $60K: Extreme Fear Grips Crypto Markets.

August 2026 Update: Bitcoin Recovers to USD 63K-65K as Outflow Streak Ends

The USD 59,400 test held. Bitcoin bottomed in the June 28 session and never broke the USD 58,000 200-day moving average. The 10-day ETF outflow streak ended on July 3 with a USD 221 million single-day inflow — the largest in roughly two months, per Yahoo Finance — and July closed as the crypto market's best month in a year, per CoinDesk, even as BTC slipped on the final day to roughly USD 63,700 (Investing.com close).

Flows remain fragile. Late July brought four consecutive days of ETF outflows totaling USD 526 million after Bitcoin failed to hold above USD 65,000, per Bitcoin Foundation data, and year-to-date net outflows across US spot Bitcoin ETFs sit near USD 5.4 billion (Investing.com analysis). The Fear & Greed Index, at 18 when this article was published, recovered to a neutral 48 by August 1 (CFGI).

Strategy's treasury shifted. The company now holds roughly 846,000 BTC after selling USD 216 million of Bitcoin at about USD 60,000 per coin in early July to fund a USD 1.25 billion stock buyback — a sharp turn from its never-sell stance, covered in our Strategy MSTR buyback report.