⚡ AI Quick Answer
The RBI MPC meeting is scheduled for April 7–9, 2026, with the rate decision on April 8. The current repo rate is 5.25%. Most economists and a Reuters poll of 71 analysts expect RBI to hold rates unchanged amid Iran conflict concerns, a weakening rupee, and global uncertainty.
5.25%
Current Repo Rate
3.35%
Reverse Repo Rate
Apr 8
Decision Date
HOLD
Consensus Forecast
~2%
Current CPI Inflation
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is meeting from April 7 to April 9, 2026. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra will announce the rate decision on April 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM IST. With the Iran conflict causing energy price shocks, a weakening rupee, and low inflation — all eyes are on whether RBI will cut, hold, or signal a pause in its rate-cut cycle.
📊 RBI Repo Rate History: 2020 to 2026
This chart shows how the RBI repo rate has moved from the COVID-19 lows of 4.00% in 2020, spiked to 6.50% by 2023, and then was cut aggressively in 2025 to reach 5.25% today.
RBI Repo Rate Timeline (%) — 2020 to April 2026
Normal
Rate Hike Cycle Peak
Current / April 2026
⚙️ How Repo Rate Works
The repo rate is the interest rate at which RBI lends money to commercial banks for the short term. When RBI changes the repo rate, it cascades through the entire economy:
🏦 RBI (Central Bank)
Sets Repo Rate = 5.25%
⬇
🏛 SBI / HDFC / ICICI
Borrow from RBI at 5.25%
🏛 Axis / Kotak / PNB
Adjust lending rates
⬇
🏠 Home Loan EMIs
Cheaper or expensive?
🚗 Car / Personal Loans
Rate changes trickle down
💰 FD / Savings Rates
Bank deposit returns
⬇
🇮🇳 India's Economy
Growth, Inflation, Investment, Jobs
🔍 April 2026 MPC: Will RBI Cut, Hold, or Hike?
Here's a breakdown of the factors the MPC is weighing right now:
✅ For Rate Cut
• CPI Inflation at ~2% — well below 4% target
• GDP growth strong at 7.3–7.4%
• 125 bps already cut in 2025
• Liquidity support needed
• GDP growth strong at 7.3–7.4%
• 125 bps already cut in 2025
• Liquidity support needed
⚠️ For Rate Hold
• Iran conflict = worst energy shock in decades (HSBC)
• Rupee weak (near ₹95/USD) — RBI managing via curbs
• FII outflows: $12.5B in March + $1B in a single day
• BofA: stagflation risk — growth drag + inflation combo
• 71/71 economists (Reuters poll): HOLD
• Rupee weak (near ₹95/USD) — RBI managing via curbs
• FII outflows: $12.5B in March + $1B in a single day
• BofA: stagflation risk — growth drag + inflation combo
• 71/71 economists (Reuters poll): HOLD
🚨 Rate Hike Risk?
• Goldman Sachs: 50 bps hike by 2026 end
• If oil surges past $100/barrel
• If inflation bounces back above 5%
• Rupee below ₹95 concern
• If oil surges past $100/barrel
• If inflation bounces back above 5%
• Rupee below ₹95 concern
📢 RBI Focus
• Calm financial markets
• Bond yield management
• FX reserves support
• Forward guidance on next cut
• Bond yield management
• FX reserves support
• Forward guidance on next cut
📅 RBI Rate Decision Timeline: 2024–2026
December 2024
Repo Rate: 6.50% HOLD
February 7, 2025
Repo Rate: 6.25% CUT 25 bps — First cut in 5 years
April 9, 2025
Repo Rate: 6.00% CUT 25 bps
June 6, 2025
Repo Rate: 5.50% CUT 50 bps — Aggressive cut
December 5, 2025
Repo Rate: 5.25% CUT 25 bps — Total 125 bps cut in 2025
February 6, 2026
Repo Rate: 5.25% HOLD — Rupee pressure, Iran war
⏳ April 8, 2026 — UPCOMING
Repo Rate: 5.25% EXPECTED HOLD
💸 EMI Impact: What Does 5.25% Repo Rate Mean for You?
Home Loan EMI Comparison (₹50 Lakh, 20 Years)
| Repo Rate | Home Loan Rate (Approx) | Monthly EMI | vs Peak (6.50%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.50% (2023–24 Peak) | ~9.00% | ₹44,986 | — |
| 6.25% (Feb 2025) | ~8.75% | ₹44,071 | Save ₹915/month |
| 5.75% (Jun 2025) | ~8.25% | ₹42,244 | Save ₹2,742/month |
| 5.25% (Current) | ~7.75–8.00% | ~₹41,000–₹42,000 | Save ~₹3,000/month |
* Indicative estimates. Actual EMI depends on bank spread and MCLR reset date.
🎯 Expert Forecasts for RBI April 2026 Decision
Reuters Poll (71 Economists)
HOLD at 5.25%
Unanimous — 71/71 analysts expect no change on April 8
Goldman Sachs
HOLD now → 50 bps HIKE by Dec 2026
Santanu Sengupta: energy shock manageable but rupee to stay above ₹95
BofA Global Research
Neutral HOLD — all options open
Rahul Bajoria: stagflation risk — RBI may use monetary policy to tackle growth + inflation simultaneously
HSBC (Pranjul Bhandari)
HOLD — watch energy shock
"If energy shock lingers, growth drag could outstrip the price shock" — reminiscent of COVID-19 era
India GDP (RBI/CNBC)
7.4% FY26 | 6.8–7.2% FY27
Growth still strong — gives RBI room to hold without triggering recession fears
❓ People Also Ask: RBI Repo Rate April 2026
What is the current RBI repo rate in April 2026? +
The current RBI repo rate is 5.25%, unchanged since December 5, 2025. The MPC held it steady again at the February 6, 2026 meeting. The April 8, 2026 decision is expected to be another hold.
Will RBI cut repo rate in April 2026? +
Unlikely. A Reuters poll of 71 economists shows overwhelming consensus for a hold at 5.25%. The Iran conflict, weakening rupee, and global uncertainty have made the RBI cautious about cutting further right now.
When is the RBI MPC meeting in April 2026? +
The RBI MPC April 2026 meeting runs from April 7 to April 9, 2026. The rate decision will be announced on April 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM IST by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
How does repo rate affect my home loan EMI? +
When the repo rate falls, banks lower their MCLR (Marginal Cost of Lending Rate), which reduces home loan interest rates and your EMI. Since early 2025, RBI has cut rates by 125 bps, saving borrowers approximately ₹2,500–₹3,500 per month on a ₹50 lakh home loan compared to the 6.50% peak.
What is a 25 bps rate cut? +
BPS stands for Basis Points. 1 bps = 0.01%. So 25 bps = 0.25%. When RBI cuts by 25 bps, the repo rate drops from, say, 5.50% to 5.25%. This small change directly affects crores of home loan, car loan, and business loan borrowers.
What is the reverse repo rate in April 2026? +
The reverse repo rate remains at 3.35%. This is the rate RBI pays banks when they park excess funds with the central bank overnight.
Will RBI hike rates in 2026? +
Goldman Sachs has forecast a possible 50 bps hike by end of 2026 if the Iran conflict leads to sustained energy price inflation. However, the prevailing consensus is that RBI will hold rates stable through mid-2026 before reassessing.
How much did RBI cut rates in 2025? +
RBI cut the repo rate by a total of 125 basis points (1.25%) in 2025 — from 6.50% to 5.25% — across four MPC meetings: February, April, June, and December 2025.
What is stagflation and how does it affect RBI's decision? +
Stagflation is a dangerous economic condition where slow growth and high inflation happen simultaneously. BofA has flagged stagflation risk for India in 2026 — the Iran war is pushing energy prices up (inflation) while also slowing economic activity (growth drag). This puts RBI in a difficult position: cutting rates could fuel inflation, while hiking could kill growth. Hence, a neutral hold is the safest path for April 2026.
How are FII outflows affecting RBI's repo rate decision? +
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) pulled out over $12.5 billion from Indian equities in March 2026 and an additional $1 billion in a single trading session due to Iran war fears and rising oil prices. This heavy selling weakens the rupee and depletes forex reserves, making RBI reluctant to cut rates — as lower rates would further encourage capital outflows.
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📅 Published: April 7, 2026 | Last Updated: April 7, 2026 | Author: SK Jabedul Haque