FOMC Rate Hike 2026: How 3.8% Inflation and the Iran War Are Pushing the Fed Toward Its First Rate Increase The probability of an FOMC rate hike 2026 is rising as April CPI inflation hit 3.8 percent. Driven by an oil shock from the Iran war that pushed crude above $100 per barrel, the Federal Reserve faces ... 2026 Forecast FOMC Federal Reserve Interest Rates 30-May-2026 0 329