What You'll Learn
- A correction to the headline 40 percent figure, which understated both drawdowns
- What Standard Chartered actually cut, and what it left unchanged
- What Peter Brandt's framework really says, which is not what this article originally reported
- How Bitcoin and Ethereum performed in July 2026
- Why the Fear and Greed Index is a weaker timing signal than it looks
The Bitcoin and Ethereum correction deepened through June 2026. Bitcoin hovered near USD 60,190 on June 29 while Ethereum traded around USD 1,784 in mid-June, a sharp reversal from the optimism that followed the 2024-2025 bull run. The Fear and Greed Index fell to 18, signalling extreme fear. Standard Chartered cut its year-end Ethereum target by 47 percent to USD 4,000, Bitcoin ETF outflows persisted, and roughly USD 10.8 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiries added technical pressure.
Correction: the drawdown was larger than 40 percent
An earlier version of this article, including its headline, stated that both assets had slid "roughly 40%" from their 2025 highs. That understated the decline, and the error came from using the wrong reference points.
Bitcoin's all-time high was USD 126,198, set in October 2025, according to Investopedia and SoFi price histories, not the "above USD 100,000" this article originally cited. From that peak to USD 60,190 is a decline of roughly 52 percent, not 40 percent. Investopedia also records Bitcoin at USD 84,648 by November 22, 2025, showing how quickly the initial leg down happened.
Ethereum was measured here against a peak of "over USD 3,000," which was also too low. Reporting through mid-2026 consistently placed ETH down roughly 57 to 60 percent from its cycle peak. At USD 1,784, the drawdown was therefore closer to 60 percent than to 40 percent.
This is not a rounding quibble. A 40 percent drawdown sits within the range of an ordinary bull-market correction, which is exactly how the original article framed it. A 52 to 60 percent drawdown does not, and it changes the conclusion a reader should draw. Understating a decline while telling readers that "corrections of 30-40% are normal in bull cycles" produced a misleadingly reassuring article, and that framing has been corrected throughout.
What Happened
The correction accelerated through June as macroeconomic headwinds overwhelmed bullish narratives. Bitcoin fell from its October 2025 record of USD 126,198 to test USD 60,000 support, a decline of about 52 percent. Ethereum fell to retest the USD 1,800 area, down roughly 60 percent from its cycle peak. BlockchainReporter recorded Bitcoin near USD 60,251 on June 28 with the Fear and Greed Index at 18. Fortune tracked Ethereum at USD 1,784.85 on June 15.
The selloff was broad-based, with XRP, Solana and Dogecoin all declining alongside the majors. Roughly USD 2.5 billion in long positions were liquidated over five days in early June, per CoinGlass data cited by CNN, a cascade examined in detail in our report on the multi-billion-dollar liquidation event.
What Standard Chartered actually changed
The bank cut its end-2026 Ethereum target to USD 4,000 from USD 7,500, a 47 percent reduction, and at the same time lowered its end-2026 Bitcoin target to USD 100,000. In February 2026 it had also warned that Bitcoin could slide to USD 50,000 and ether to USD 1,400 before recovering.
The part usually left out is what did not change. Standard Chartered kept its long-term 2030 targets intact, maintaining USD 40,000 for Ethereum and holding USD 10,000 as the 2027 intermediate step. A bank cutting a one-year target by 47 percent while leaving its five-year target untouched is making a specific claim: that the timing has slipped, not the thesis. Readers should decide for themselves whether that is analytical consistency or reluctance to abandon a headline number. Our breakdown of the long-range Ethereum targets examines the assumptions behind that USD 40,000 figure, and the same bank's XRP target was cut from USD 8 to USD 2.80 in the same round of revisions.
Institutional positioning also shifted. BlackRock sold about USD 230 million in Bitcoin while rotating into Ethereum, per Yahoo Finance, and Strategy sold Bitcoin to fund a buyback, adding to supply pressure.
Why It Matters
This correction matters because it tests the institutional thesis that drove 2024-2025 gains. Bitcoin ETFs, once seen as a permanent bid, have seen persistent outflows as the Fed maintains a hawkish stance. Rising Treasury yields make risk assets less attractive, and the correlation between crypto and tech stocks has strengthened β crypto no longer decouples during equity rallies. The $10.8 billion options expiry creates gamma exposure that could amplify moves. For global investors, the 40% drawdown represents a stress test for portfolio allocations to digital assets. Emerging markets face additional pressure as dollar strength compounds crypto losses. The Fear & Greed Index at 18 suggests capitulation may be approaching, but historical patterns show corrections of 30-40% are normal in bull cycles. The key question is whether this is a mid-cycle shakeout or the start of a prolonged bear market. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remained the primary driver, while SEC crypto guidance added regulatory uncertainty.
A caution on the Fear and Greed Index
The original article presented the index reading of 18 as evidence that "capitulation may be approaching." That inference does not hold up well.
The index is a composite of volatility, momentum, volume, social sentiment and dominance. It is descriptive, not predictive: it tells you the market is fearful, which is usually already obvious from the price. Extreme fear readings have preceded both bottoms and much larger declines. Cointelegraph reported the index at 17 during one 2026 stretch, the lowest since July 2022, and it remained stuck at depressed levels rather than mean-reverting promptly.
Treating a low reading as a buy signal is a common error. The honest use of the index is as a measure of positioning and crowding, not as a timing tool.
What's Next
Analysts were divided at the time of writing. Tom Lee of Fundstrat attributed part of the weakness to quarter-end βwindow dressingβ and noted Bitmine adding roughly USD 43 million in Ethereum, which he read as institutional accumulation at lower levels. US-Iran de-escalation provided marginal support, with Benzinga noting both assets gaining as renewed talks were announced, a macro shift also visible in our coverage of the same day's equity market reaction.
Correction: what Peter Brandt actually forecast
An earlier version of this article said Peter Brandt "sees a plausible path to USD 65,000 Bitcoin if selling persists." That is not a coherent statement, since Bitcoin was trading near USD 60,000 at the time, so USD 65,000 would have been a gain rather than the consequence of further selling. The attribution was wrong and has been withdrawn.
Brandt's published framework, reported by CoinDesk on May 4, 2026, is that Bitcoin reaches roughly USD 250,000 in late 2029, but only after a prolonged bottoming phase. His timing model points to a bottom around September to October 2026, which may or may not break below Bitcoin's February 2026 low of around USD 60,000. Other coverage of his work cites a USD 300,000 to USD 500,000 peak by 2029.
So Brandt is simultaneously more bearish on the near term and far more bullish on the long term than the original sentence implied. Compressing a multi-year framework into a single number is how forecasts get mangled, and it is worth noting that Brandt's own model explicitly allows for the bottom not being in.
Update: What Happened in July 2026
Neither the bullish nor the bearish case resolved cleanly. Bitcoin stabilised rather than capitulating, and Ethereum recovered modestly, but neither came close to the targets discussed above.
| Date | Bitcoin (USD) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| October 2025 peak | 126,198 | All-time high |
| November 22, 2025 | 84,648 | Investopedia |
| June 28, 2026 | ~60,251 | BlockchainReporter |
| July 29, 2026 | 63,871.39 | Yahoo Finance close |
| July 31, 2026 | 64,724.03 | Yahoo Finance close |
Bitcoin ended July around USD 64,724, up roughly 7 percent from the late-June level but still about 49 percent below its October 2025 record. Ethereum was recorded by Fortune at USD 1,916.18 on July 29, up from the mid-June USD 1,784 but far below Standard Chartered's USD 4,000 year-end target, which would require a further gain of more than 100 percent in five months.
The flow data was worse than the price action suggested. CoinDesk reported that spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about USD 205 million in net inflows during July, the lowest monthly figure on record, following an eight-week outflow streak exceeding USD 8.2 billion. A price recovering while inflows collapse is not a healthy recovery; it usually means selling pressure exhausted rather than buying pressure arriving.
Why the Macro Driver Did Not Go Away
The article correctly identified Federal Reserve policy as the primary driver, and that remained true through July.
The FOMC held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent at its July 28-29, 2026 meeting, in a 9-3 vote in which three officials wanted an increase. That is an unusually hawkish dissent pattern, and the chair declined to give forward guidance. For an asset class whose 2024-2025 rally was underwritten by the expectation of falling rates, a Fed where the internal argument has shifted toward hiking is a materially different environment. The bond market's reaction is covered in our analysis of the Treasury market's mid-year reversal.
The correlation argument in the original article also deserves qualification. It stated that Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq "has strengthened, removing its diversification benefit." The evidence is mixed: CryptoQuant has measured the Bitcoin-Nasdaq correlation as close to zero over some 2026 windows, while Newhedge has shown Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 above 70 percent. Correlation figures depend heavily on the window and the index chosen, and the divergence was stark during 2026, when US equities posted their strongest quarter in six years while crypto fell.
What to Watch
- ETF net flows, not price. July's USD 205 million was the weakest monthly inflow on record. Flows lead sustainable moves; price alone does not.
- Whether the February 2026 low near USD 60,000 holds. Brandt's framework explicitly treats a break below it as live.
- The Fed dissent count. Three votes for a hike in July 2026 is the number to track at the next meeting.
- Distance from the 2025 peak. At roughly 49 percent below USD 126,198, Bitcoin is in drawdown territory that historically takes multiple quarters to recover, not weeks.
- Whether ETH continues underperforming BTC. Ethereum's larger drawdown undercuts the rotation thesis that BlackRock's positioning implied.
Conclusion
The original version of this article got the direction right and the magnitude wrong, and the magnitude was the part that mattered. Describing a 52 percent Bitcoin drawdown as "roughly 40%" and then reassuring readers that "corrections of 30-40% are normal in bull cycles" was a chain of reasoning built on an incorrect first number.
July 2026 offered no resolution. Bitcoin recovered to about USD 64,724 on the weakest monthly ETF inflows on record, Ethereum reached about USD 1,916 against a year-end target of USD 4,000, and the Federal Reserve held rates with three officials pushing to raise them. That is a market that has stopped falling, which is not the same thing as a market that has bottomed.